Could Mount Vesuvius erupt?

If you’re going to Naples, then you’ve likely heard the story of what happened to Pompeii and other ancient Roman cities after Vesuvius erupted in 79 AD. As such, you may be worried whether it could happen again or does happen and you’re just unaware. Don’t fret, we’ll cover that today.

 

Volcano in Naples

Mount Vesuvius, located on the Gulf of Naples, about 5 miles from Naples, is likely the most famous volcano in the world. Its eruption in 79 destroyed Pompeii, Herculaneum, Oplontis, Stabiae and more. Vesuvius has one main cone, with the highest point of the mountain being 1,281 metres (4,203 feet) above sea level. And it is still one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world.

Vesuvius has had many, many eruptions, with the one in 79 AD being neither the first nor the strongest one. From the Pompeiian eruption till the 17th century, there were as many as 25 possible eruptions. In the 18th century, Vesuvius decided to erupt six times and eight times in the 19th century. The eruptions of Vesuvius weren’t only felt by the locals – volcanic ash would fall on southern Europe at large and, twice in history, it reached Constantinople. In the 20th century, there were four eruptions, the last one in 1944. Since then, silence.

 

See the 1944 eruption of Vesuvius

Though the eruptions in the last few centuries have been quite tame in comparison with the largest outbursts, the volcano is by no means dormant. As such, scientists are closely monitoring the volcano, hoping to be able to predict a larger eruption about two weeks before it happens. The local authorities have prepared emergency plans for such an occasion, especially from the most at-risk zones of the area. The estimate is that such an emergency evacuation could take a week.

It’s a very awkward thing because false alarms can happen with such predictions. In 1984, an evacuation was carried out, though no eruption ended up happening. As such, the strategy is to relocate permanent residents from the most at-risk zones and continue observing Vesuvius closely. Currently, it seems that it’s quite safe. 

We’d like to think that with a question like ‘will Vesuvius erupt’, it may be intuitive to answer ‘no, of course not, people live there after all’. They do, and it’s a fascinating thing to ponder that, as a species with inherent instincts to avoid danger, perhaps we find some thrill in rebelling against it anyway. 

As for your safety in the area around Vesuvius, the volcano is as closely monitored as it can be and, hopefully, if an emergency does occur, you’ll be informed well in advance. For years now, no signs of danger have been recorded, so we think you’ll be just fine. 

 

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